2010年11月18日星期四

Default swaps (CDS) soaring United Kingdom divided into the next crisis attacks target _ low hand yiming

Credit default swaps surge United Kingdom into the next debt violator? 2010-04-3011: 56: 35 last week investors NET buy 4.43 billion used to guard against United Kingdom credit default default swaps (CDS) product, such product total balance reached 82 billion, and the breach of contract against Greece CDS product balances is approximately equivalent. 4 social assessment in Hong Kong, 30 Mar/Wall Street Journal reported that the investors snapped against European outbreak next round credit crisis, their worries have spread to the United Kingdom. United States managed trust and Clearing Corporation (Depository Trust and ClearingCorp.) Data show that the net last week investors to buy 4.43 million against United Kingdom credit default default swaps (CDS) product, such product total balance reached 82 billion, and the breach of contract against Greece CDS product balances is approximately equivalent. These purchases are not like other credit crisis in the near future, result in United Kingdom, but CDS price growth of market behavior in some aspects is very like Greece and elsewhere before the credit crisis. In contrast, last week against Portugal NET buy CDS of defaults 1,000 million, are Spain and Italy are dropped. These three countries were the focus of attention, because they have the potential to become Greece after the credit crisis spread to the next victim. From the data view, the United Kingdom also has the potential to become crisis attacks target. The purchase volume and scale of the national bond markets, compared to the number of relatively small, this may help explain the changes of intensity. But the market observer that purchases of movements it is possible that the impending trouble signal, it should be very aware. Research institutions-credit derivatives research (Credit DerivativesResearch) Chief Strategist Baker Charles (TimBackshall) said, you certainly can be derived that markets are increasingly concerned about the situation in the United Kingdom. In recent years, CDS prices are paying close attention, as is reflected in the credit market potential volatility indicators. CDS also by skeptic substantial criticism, they say, speculators exploit their prices to persecute the target countries for breach of contract. Supporters retorted that CDS prices is useful market indicators to help investors hedge risks. CDS increased scale does not breach the credit market worries will be concentrated in the United Kingdom. In the past month CDS prices steady, is still lower than the February record highest level this year. Such a relatively stable trend shows that market still has a large number of investors are willing to sell CDS, this means that many investors are not worried about the risk of default. When investors are willing to sell CDS, reduction of demand, the price will rise. The broker Knight Libertas fixed income strategist leaf Erwin (Brian Yelvington), investors buying CDS, perhaps just to hedge a relative risk of doing more United Kingdom. The so-called relative to do more, investors believe that the performance of the United Kingdom national debt would be beyond the continental States of the United Kingdom Government bonds, thus buying Government bonds. In the 1990s "wrecking" pounds of hedge fund Regal Soros (GeorgeSoros) recently said that he believed that the United Kingdom maybe more than in the euro area have conditional processing of own debt problems. However, investors have to do empty United Kingdom finance there are some obvious reasons, at least short term do empty grounds. One of the reasons is that this election parties equally, making the United Kingdom Parliament is likely to occur without the majority of cases, become a "suspended Parliament" (hungparliament) in addition, the United Kingdom already precarious, the banking sector and their European debt also has open, and this is where investors feel nervous. United Kingdom Government is dealing with a lot of problems, the budget deficit remained high, weak economic growth, according to some analysts forecast that its debt burden will rise to 90% of GDP. British Conservative party leader Cameron as 200 years the youngest Prime Minister 2010-05/12/05: 14 Xinhua to comment (220) [Guide] local time on May 11th (12 morning Beijing time), the United Kingdom Queen authorized United Kingdom Chairman David · Cameron to form the next Government of United Kingdom, 43-year-old Cameron became United Kingdom nearly 200 years the youngest Prime Minister.
Brown Announces resignation of the Prime Minister's Office
Brown finished!
Brown went to Buckingham Palace to the Queen formally submitted his resignation
Yiming Retrospect and prospect:
Southeast Asian financial crisis-United States subprime mortgage-Dubai storm-Iceland/Greece/"bungee" debt crisis in the four countries
---United Kingdom credit potential crisis??
-Japan deficit "underwater" crisis??? -China after the mortgage crisis??????
100 years of world economic crisis warning on December 12, 2008 origin: China economic times summarizes the characteristics of these countries, mainly because of the crisis can be attributed to: one is foreign capital inflow too quickly, especially short-term capital inflows too quickly, so that their exposure to international capital, implied significant risk. Second, regulatory capacity and financial liberalization does not match. In regulatory capacity and institution building of backwardness of situationThe reform of the order of errors occurred, premature, excessive or external pressure from passive introduction of financial liberalization, latent large financial risks. The third is the continued economic prosperity of the bubble economy, contributing to large numbers of credit funds into the stock market, real estate bubble blowing up. 4 Exchange rate system rigidity. Brazil, Argentina will be the default currency to the dollar exchange rate is fixed to 1: 1; Thailand, Turkey also introduced pinning system, form the currency dollar overestimated, export competitiveness, foreign trade deficit. 5 international imbalances, once international capital flight after paying capacity shortage occurs, the debt crisis and currency crisis. Six is contagious, infectious among developing countries, but developed countries basic is not affected by the epidemic. Currently, the global economic and financial crisis is diffuse, the author compares the 20 century most of the world's leading economic and financial crisis, the discovery of the bubble economy, and external shocks is the main cause of the crisis. I hope China can get from these lessons, the necessary warning. 100 years of economic and financial crisis was the bubble and external shocks economic crisis (EconomicCrisis) refers to a market economy development cycle of overproduction crisis. Since the 1825 United Kingdom broke out for the first time since the economic crisis, the capitalist economy has never been out of the impact of the economic crisis ever. Main features: recession, drop in production, merchandise surplus; corporate failures, bank failures, unemployment and poverty increased dramatically. After the second world war the Western countries have taken measures to try and macroeconomic regulation "wrinkles" cycle, the periodicity of the economic crisis has not pronounced. Financial crisis (FinancialCrisis) refers to a country or region of the all or part of the financial indicators such as interest rates, exchange rates, securities, premium, business, bankruptcy and closure of a number of financial institutions rapidly, short and deterioration of the Super cycle; financial crises can be divided into currency crises and debt crises and banking crisis, but now increasingly showing a mixed form of crisis; if the financial crisis spread to the rest of the economy, a large number of failures caused by enterprises, unemployment number and economic slump, into economic crisis even social crisis. 1552 year-1920, the continent every decade or so break out once the economic crisis. Since the beginning of last century, the world's major economic and financial crisis has 20 times more famous big crisis in 1929, two oil crises, the Latin American debt crisis, the Southeast Asian financial crisis, financial crisis, Russia, in addition to the second world war, the Soviet system transition and other special circumstances, there are two kinds: one is the stock market and real estate bubble burst, and 10 times, accounting for 40 per cent; second external shocks, including serious imbalance in the balance of payments, capital access, exchange rate volatility and the debt crisis, a total of 15 times, 60 per cent. Many developing countries is the external shocks and foam economic factors intertwined together, exacerbates economic instability and risk. 1. the stock market bubble formation and rupture bubble economy (BubbleEconomy) refers to the virtual capital transactions related to the excessive growth, continued to expand, financial securities, real estate prices soaring, speculative transactions extremely active, growing out of the loop capital growth and industrial sector growth; the bubble economy in financial speculation, socio-economic prosperity of false, last will bubble burst, causing social unrest, even economic collapse. Economic bubble is widespread in a market economy, economic growth in virtual economic factors such as financial securities, bonds, property and financial speculation trading from the entity's capital and industrial development. Economic bubble can exist for a long time, is determined by its role in the decision of duality: on the one hand, the existence of the bubble economy in favour of capital andPromoting competition, active market, prosperous economy, as long as the control in the moderate range, enabling the development of the market; on the other hand, economic bubble in the persistent false factors and speculative factors, if excessive swelling, severe foam from the real economy, false prosperity, evolved into the bubble economy. Visible, the bubble and the bubble is differentiated and contact is the bubble economy, economic bubble bianyici is neutral; they cannot be simply a parallel, it is necessary to recognize the economic objective necessity of foam, also to prevent overly expansive foam into a bubble economy. History, typical of the bubble economy are: Japan (1980s-1990s); United States (1929, 1987, 2000) appears three times in the stock market volatility; the United Kingdom (1974); Hong Kong, China (1973, 1987, 1997) occurs three times in the crash; China Taiwan (1990, 1998). Wishes to Japan as an example a glimpse of the crisis in the finest. The 1990s was known as Japan's "lost decade", incentive is the bubble burst. In the 1980s as the surplus is large, in the United States, under the pressure of 1985, signed the agreement on the square, and the yen/USD exchange rate from 1985 to 1988, 238 l 128, appreciation of the extent of up to 46 per cent. Fear of the export decline, economic slowdown (actually appreciation on the impact of export and surplus is not obvious, 1986 19 per cent export growth, the surplus growth of 78 per cent, economic growth also 3.1 percent), Japan has adopted expansionary policy easing interest rates from 5 percent to 2.5%, money supply growth is the nominal GDP growth rate of 2 times, there was excess liquidity, capital influx of stock and real estate market, to promote the formation of foam. 1985-1990, Japan land asset value up 2.4 times, reaching 15 trillion, equivalent to the GDP of over 5 times more than the United States land worth over 4 times; Nikkei index rose from 12000 point to point, stock total 39000 value added 4.7 times earnings 1989 70.9 times (but Japan stock returns only 0.4%-0.7 per cent over the same period in European and American enterprises, only 1/6 of left-right); 1986-1989, Japan national assets total 2330 trillion yen, with 60 per cent of the stock price for the premium, the value-added benefits. Bubble, stock prices since 1989, the highest point of 39000 fell by 1992 14000, 2004 reached the lowest 7600 points, up to 80 per cent decline in house prices are high; and up to 70%. Stock and price of the asset losses equivalent to 90 per cent of GDP, up to 5 trillion-6 trillion. Since then the Government has taken measures to stimulate the economy, the decreasing interest rates, but also in the "liquidity trap", the Fed has no effect; coupled with the lack of a continuous expansion of the domestic policy, the economy was in more than ten years of the great depression, a Bank debts, equipment, personnel, three excess. Together, first, the general process of the bubble economy is an expansive economic policy – money supply increase — loans increase — credit contraction — bubble burst; second, economic prosperity and financial surplus is foam formation of foundations; third, slow foam cumulative hopes soon; fourth, banks and stock market are essential, the associated size determines the extent of damage of the crisis and recovery capabilities. Big crisis and Japan "bubble" economy, "the Bank, there has been a drag on serious economic recession and crises; Black Monday and networks involved in small foam due to banks, crisis time shorter, less damage. 2. balance of payments, capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations, the debt crisis external shocks such as bubble economy in developing countries are often related to external shocks. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, particularly in developing countries a significant increase in the financial crisis. Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s and 1990s in several financial crises, the Southeast Asian financial crisis, financial crisis, Russia Turkey financial crisis, and external shocks, the crisis can be broadly divided into two categories, namely, the debt crisis and currency crises. Debt crisis mainly refers to the economic growth of good and expected bright, large amounts of borrowing, especially short-term external debt, overdependence on indirect capital cover national funds and foreign currency gap, while the long-term implementation of import-substitution strategies that result in regular payments deficits. Once the economic confidence, foreign capital into decline, not repayment happens reserves depleted, lack of capacity to pay of the debt crisis occurred, such as the 1980s Latin America, in 1998, Russia was in the case of this example. Latin America (1980s): 1970s excessive liabilities policy implemented in Latin America, the balance between 1975-784 billion to $ 3269 of 1982. As a result of lower inflation stabilization policies, financial liberalization, high interest rates and exchange rate policy overestimated, increased trade deficit and the debt dependency. On the one hand, reduce foreign exchange: with the developed Western countries during the 1980s recession has affected exports in Latin America; at the same time, the steep decline in foreign capital inflow, annual flows from 483 billion in 1981 to 1983 80 million (minus 45 billion of capital flight), only 1/6. On the other hand, incremental: international foreign exchange market to prevent inflation, interest rates rise, the Latin American interest from 1977 to 1982, 69 us $ 390 million, compared to the Latin American debt increased 195 percent, but interest increase 415%. Foreign investment inflow to reduce external payments, the Latin America having large amounts of capital outflow, 1982-1989 annual interest andProfits sink up to more than 300 billion, net outflows of funds accumulated 2031, this crisis into a payment. Over the same period of the Latin American debt has not decreased, but from 3269 billion to $ 4159. Crisis in Latin America took the IMF reduced the deficit, rising interest rates, import, to improve the balance of payments and other prescriptions, but brought economic depression. Currency crisis is primarily due to exchange rate system rigid and default currency overestimated, trade and current account deficit, relying on foreign capital flows to compensate for deficits, especially in the large influx of foreign capital in the near future, further promote local currency appreciation, which exacerbate current account imbalances, also increased dependence on foreign capital, exchange rate system being targeted. Once confidence shaken, will be forced to let Exchange rate fluctuations, the drastic devaluation, Southeast Asia, Argentina, Turkey and other countries of the financial crisis is primarily a currency crisis. In fact, many national currency, the interweaving of the debt crisis, cannot be distinguished. Summary of the characteristics of these countries, mainly because of the crisis can be attributed to: one is foreign capital inflow too quickly, especially short-term capital inflows too quickly, so that their exposure to international capital, implied significant risk. Second, regulatory capacity and financial liberalization does not match. In regulatory capacity and institution building of backwardness of circumstances, a failure of the reform priorities, premature, excessive or external pressure from passive introduction of financial liberalization, latent large financial risks. The third is the continued economic prosperity of the bubble economy, contributing to large numbers of credit funds into the stock market, real estate bubble blowing up. 4 Exchange rate system rigidity. Brazil, Argentina will be the default currency to the dollar exchange rate is fixed to 1: 1; Thailand, Turkey also introduced pinning system, form the currency dollar overestimated, export competitiveness, foreign trade deficit. 5 international imbalances, once international capital flight after paying capacity shortage occurs, the debt crisis and currency crisis. Six is contagious, infectious among developing countries, but developed countries basic is not affected by the epidemic. On the other hand, since the 1990s the number of financial crisis that affected by the crisis the smallest country is the effective regulation of the flow of capital, strict national. Although South Korea capital market open late and more intangible protection, financial crisis, financial institutions and large corporations in vulnerability and regulatory systems; but openness higher, supervision by competent national or financial crisis. Such as Singapore in 1996 provides for the purchase of housing 3 years sold to charge 100% of the capital gains tax, Singapore while small, external dependence is strong, but during the Asian financial crisis affected small; 1991 Chile for foreign securities investment into short-term loans, collection of 10 per cent of the reserve. Economic growth in the 1990s Chile 7.4 percent compared with the Latin American average more than twice the speed of 1. Economic and financial crisis, often leads to economic recession, corporate bankruptcy, have massive unemployment and poverty, serious or even cause social unrest and changes of Government. On the crisis of comprehensive summary integrated survey a century of economic and financial crisis, we have found the following characteristics: 1. crises mostly occur in fast economic growth of countries. Relatively rapid economic growth to appear confident, blind optimism, relax crisis alert. As Japan bubble burst before 1987-1990 's annual economic growth of 5 per cent, compared to the early 1980s, high nearly 2 percentage points; Latin American debt crisis of 1974-1980 economic growth 5.1%, with Mexico and Brazil, respectively 6.3 and 6.1 percent; South-East Asian financial crisis of 8 years, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia's average economic growth rate is as high as 8%-9%. While Europe France, Germany, Italy, Britain and other countries in the rare occurrence that the economic crisis, even partial, is also not raised global chaos and social unrest, the reasons are: economic growth is stable; long experienced a major crisis, national mentality more mature, speculative does not thick atmosphere; regulatory capacity, economic strength, have the ability to withstand crises; has a long history of market economy, finance and foreign exchange regime of sound, with less risk hazard. 2. bubble economy have been "crazy-panic-crash" three development stages. Different financial monographs on crisis processes have the same description: anomaly (better-than-expected earnings opportunities in large, etc,) — capital surplus — excessive loan (credit expansion) — the asset prices — raising interest rates and reclaim loans — the asset prices – financial crisis. Before crisis, generally rendering economy, economic optimism, investment expanded and credit expansion. Optimist will affirm that economic nature have foam, foam is normal. However history continues to repeat a simple rule: the crisis group before, do not believe that dangerous fanatic; once critical, confidence, strong fear; after the crisis, the bubble burst, bankruptcy, recession, unemployment, poverty immediately. United Kingdom people McKee at the conclusion of the European 16, bubble economy in the 17th century, the book was called the extraordinary popular fantasy and mass insanity "; United States Economist Kindelberger in summarizes recent 400 years of history after the financial crisis reached the conclusion that:" the madness-panic-crash "fit" God to let him die, let him crazy "predictions. Olympic village Yang Yan-Professor at the conclusion of Japan's bubble economy, said that people are rational and emotional binding objects, in the stock market boom and crash, perceptual occupy the upper hand. Harvard Professor Shearer, who accurately predicted the high tech bubble burst, the stock market's "irrational exuberance" exist "pangs scam" (a form of investment fraud, was named for Charles · Pang 's), like the pyramid structure of illegal pyramid scheme, is to profit as bait, luck is always the last group of people. 3. exchange rate regime and currency is reasonable as external shocksSize of important factors. Rigid system often become targets of international capital. In 1999, 2002, Brazil, Argentina, before the financial crisis is pursuing dollarization, respectively will be real, peso dollar lock in 1: 1; Southeast Asia 1997 implementing pegged exchange rate regime, an overvalued currency. Local currency overestimate or underestimate will exacerbate the external imbalances, jeopardizing economic security. The local currency after overestimated the trade and current account deficits, a large number of foreign capital to cover expected due to depreciation, capital flight, currency or the debt crisis, the crisis in developing countries generally is the case. The local currency after two underestimated, is a Japanese style of appreciation too quickly, generate wealth effect, increase mobility and domestic demand, stimulating the growth of the bubble economy, and a slower appreciation but appreciation is expected, and speculative capital access, rising foreign exchange reserves, domestic asset price inflation, increase economic risks, to some extent, this is the case. 4. International hot money often is developing the fuse of the financial crisis and declining health. Trillions of international capital can use any of the stock market-breaking-in developing countries. Whether the debt crisis or a currency crisis, and utilization of foreign capital way improper, in particular securities investments, short-term external debt, and other indirect investment or idle funds tend to be the culprit. If the Latin American debt crisis foreign borrowing more than $ 300 billion, Russia in October 1998, there are around 200 billion inflow, Thailand, Indonesia, Turkey crisis foreign debt reached nearly 10 million and $ 1500 billion, 1100, the debt ratio is very high. Capital markets open to international hot money and provides a channel like Stiglitz on the Southeast Asian financial crisis and concluded: "capital account liberalization is causing the crisis only the most important factors", in the event of a capital outflow, acceleration will trigger payments crises. 5. "financial stability" determines the necessary government regulation. Practice and theory have descriptions, financial instability with the "by nature". Fisher, Cairns, Kaminski, Economist development and perfection of the theory of financial instability, Kindelberger used the theory test for a 100 years of historical facts, proof of its accuracy. George Soros, in accordance with its own "reflex" and "radical theory can be wrong", demonstration of financial markets is not possible to achieve equilibrium, but is in a constant "Sheng-failure cycle", market fundamentalism is wrong. People also invented the "random walk" (the RandomWalk) and "irrational" and "excessive transactions" and "herd" and "butterfly effect" and "crushes the camel's last straw" vivid words to describe the characteristics, confidence in the stock market, expected, with the wind often become the master of the financial market. For example, Japan, Latin America, Southeast Asia's share price during the crisis will turn many times before, the crisis has dropped by 70%-90%, the United States, China, Taiwan, Japan, etc. soon back in a few years ago started to rise. Therefore, the stock market is prone to "market failure", the need for reasonable accommodation. 6. get rid of the bubble economy against the road is long. Many countries are in stock price-earnings ratio of 5 times, 50 times, there have been bubble burst, generally at 80 percent, fell to a level almost before rising and. Bubble burst for economic harm is large, Latin America and Japan are the "lost decade" even more than a decade, an average economic growth rate has only 1 percent. 7. effective response to prevent the spread of risk. 1974, United Kingdom financial crisis, the 1987 United States Black Monday, the European currency crisis of 1992, 1994, of the impact of financial crisis, Mexico are relatively short, two years after the economy fully restored, did not cause the economic crisis, the timely and effective coping. 8. establishing suited to independent coping mechanisms are particularly important. IMF (International Monetary Fund), developed policy recommendations are often detrimental to developing countries, the root cause is not taken into account the circumstances of the parties. As with the Latin American debt crisis, the IMF and 16 Latin American countries signed the loan agreement, requires the implementation of economic adjustment, reducing the deficit policies exacerbated recession; Southeast Asian financial crisis, IMF out the same economic tightening prescription to aggravate the crisis and economic transition; Russia, West of shock therapy, as the new economic system can form a night to make Russia an economic downturn by 50 per cent, after reflection, these policies are ridiculous, but for most people accepted or appreciation for their practical recommendations have been adopted. Together, we might be at risk and external risk foam cutting, and Japan's bubble economy similar, and both developing countries and some of the characteristics of external shocks. For this we need to keep a clear head, timely solve potential risks. (杨正位/《中国战略观察》研究员)黄金成为最大赢家  为防止希腊债务危机扩散,欧盟终于出台7500亿欧元(约1万亿美元)的“救助方案”以捍卫欧元。 As in the past Government has repeatedly to save crisis intervention in the markets, the market for this is "a mixed record." On successful implementation of aid programmes, programme content is actually a bit ridiculous. Crisis of the trigger point is the market worried about poor financial situation of the European part of the Government's inability to pay his debts, but the Government is also involved in becoming a part of the secured debt. Among them, with the depression of the debt crisis of the "EU five" of Spain, has pledged to set up the "special loansShi ". But the money come from? this does not mean that the Government of Spain to high interest bond financing for low-interest loan facilities of the "special" funding programme let? financial and credit records good debtor together with the bordering the edge of the debtor in bankruptcy debt together, ultimately helping the latter to the former step by step to resolve the fiscal relief, or which dragged down the former into the fiscal difficulties together, we can only wait and see. Admittedly, the assistance programme to address the fiscal difficulties countries issue win time, so that its action to the market that determined to rectify financial situation (Spain Wednesday has rapidly announced cuts in civil servants ' pay cut red plan), temporarily stop the proliferation of sovereign debt crisis. "EU five" credit default swaps (CDS) spreads and Treasury yields fell down, and American stock markets appear retaliatory rebound, but in the European Central Bank to buy government bonds in disguise printing operations in Europe, the euro's rebound only pan. Of course, for European sovereign debt crises, the core of the problem is the bond market rather than the euro, as long as bond yields fall restoring confidence in the market, the euro exchange rate even lower, on the euro area countries combat will not too large, it may help to increase exports to stimulate the economy. On the other hand, European debt crisis of the beneficiaries in addition to the US dollar and US bonds, gold has become the second biggest winners. European debt crisis is temporarily been alleviated, but as a refuge for gold, money spot gold price this Wednesday in New York rose to $ 1248.82 historical high. In fact, even in the absence of European debt crisis, since the financial tsunami, the central banks implementing quantitative easing monetary policy has been buried for the price of gold soaring foreshadow. But it is worth noting that, according to World Gold Council (WGC), a copy of the money supply and the relationship between gold and inflation, the report pointed out that the gold price performance tends to be the Central Bank increased the money supply lagging in 6 months, which means that central banks since the start of the 2008 Super relaxed monetary policy, the excitement of the gold price today still, also means that even if the States today announced that monetary tightening, is still difficult to reverse the gold price rally. WGC assumes that the exchange rate factor does not affect the gold price (US dollar gold price often opposite), the Fed each additional narrow money supply (M1) 1% (annual), 6 months after the gold price to rise 0.9% (year-on-year), India, and Europe respectively equivalent to rise 0.7% and 0.5%. WGC also of Canada, China, Japan and other monetary supply, has reached a similar conclusion. While the European debt crisis, can be expected in Europe and the Central Bank will further delay the delisting, which means that the gold price rally time yet again, this analysis, the gold price has been another all-time high, but with the potential to buy is not too late, short term gold any clawback is definitely a bargain had the excellent opportunity. Stock market price or funds to continue to next year the price of gold will help power has three aspects. First is spread throughout Greece bond crisis in the euro area, the market prospects for the euro, domestic and foreign stock market, real estate funds to invest in hedging currency — physical gold, gold Fund holdings, the world's largest gold ETF Fund — SPDRGoldTrust position record high levels, within a week of holdings of more than 100 tons of gold, as of Wednesday closing has risen to 1209.50 tons, the ETF Fund positions high; Furthermore, the gold price breakthrough 1200 us $/ounce at the gateway, the price pressure reduction, technology grew. Expected after June is the low season, the price of gold or anything to callback, the international price of gold fell to 1200 us $/ounce, but to re-enter the season in September, the end of the gold price or soared to more than 1300 Yuan per ounce, the price trend is expected to continue until early next year. 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