Zhang weiying pulse of Chinese economic _ sea Yue's blog

Economic pulse of the future China Zhang weiying (excerpt) under economic historian Angus · McGrady's study, in a long time, various countries (area) of the population and economy of scale highly relevant, population size determines the economic scale. T-Mac Sen speculate that by the year 2030, China's GDP might reach the world total of 23%, India is 10%, the United States for 17%, Western European countries together to 13 per cent of the world. "China's century" really come? the answer depends on China's future economic growth. Three changes most critical: first, the export from rely primarily on promoting growth, the domestic and foreign markets more balanced growth; the second is from low cost, low-cost resources and cheap labour support growth to higher based on innovation, added value-growth; the third is from the natural-growth enterprises, to industry consolidation pattern grow. Globalization has changed the world of economy and political structure. If the first globalization, China is the largest of the victims, so this time of globalization, China is the biggest beneficiaries. Development of the domestic market, not the usual "enlargement", not engage in monetary expansion or Government investment to stimulate the economy, but the free market and to stimulate entrepreneurship, more rational use of resources, to meet the real needs of ordinary people. This is the economy itself a larger, deeper degree of "reform and opening up". China 31 provincial economic zone, if each economic zone as an independent ranking of "national", then put them to good world economies of scale to be a comparison, the results might surprise many people of unexpected : : If you are treated as separate economies, 2008 economy of scale in the world's first 18-bit, more than in Turkey, Indonesia, Poland, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden, Saudi Arabia ; — Shandong and Jiangsu, economy of scale in excess of Norway, Austria, Denmark, Greece, Iran, Argentina; -Zhejiang economic size over Venezuela, Ireland, South Africa ; — economic size over Finland in Henan province, Thailand, Portugal, Colombia; — Hebei economic scale over the Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Nigeria; — ranked seventh in Shanghai and the eighth bit of Liaoning, economic size over Romania, Israel, Malaysia; Sichuan economic scale than Singapore, Ukraine, Algeria, Chile; — — economic size over Pakistan, Philippines; --Hunan economic size exceeds the U.A.E., Egypt; — ranked 12th in Fujian and 13-bit of Beijing, economy of scale more than Hungary; --Anhui economic size over Kazakhstan, New Zealand, Peru; Heilongjiang, and Inner Mongolia, economies of scale are more than Kuwait; -Guangxi, Shanxi, Shaanxi, economies of scale are more than Libya; --Jiangxi economic size over Slovakia; — Tianjin and Jilin, Viet Nam, economy of scale more than Morocco; — Yunnan economic size over Angola, Bangladesh; Chongqing economic size over Croatia; — Xinjiang economic size over Belarus, Sudan, Luxembourg, Qatar, Serbia, Bulgaria ; -Guizhou and Gansu, economic size over Lithuania, Dominican Republic, Sri Lanka, Uruguay, Panama ; Hainan economic size over Cyprus, Tanzania, Jordan, Bolivia, Iceland; in Ningxia, economy of scale more than Ghana, Jamaica, Uganda; in Qinghai, economic size over Zambia, Honduras, Nepal, Myanmar; — the last of Tibet, economy of scale also over Mongolia and other countries. In General, support a country's economic growth in several major elements: the first is the protection of property; the second is a scientific and rational thinking; and third, development of capital markets; the fourth is good communication traffic. Development of the domestic market impediments, not the transport and communication of such hardware infrastructure, but the system cost. The administrative division of China and the Government-led economy system, in many cases domestic trade transaction costs even higher than international trade. Over the past 30 years, China's 100 million population of the city generally increased 200; the next 30 years, China has 4 billion people from rural to urban, if a city's population calculated at 100 million, China needs to increase 400 such a city. The advantage of the market, always pick out to anticipate future trends of entrepreneurs so that they become the new industry leader. The so-called market reform, price liberalization, privatization and decentralization of enterprise delivery, open and globalization. The State economy thanEmphasis now is 36%, 2040 should be below 10%, no matter how willing or unwilling, results may be available only in this way. Now live a good, basic State-owned enterprises rely on monopoly money, inefficient State-owned enterprises in occupies a society; two-thirds of the financial resources, but only the creation of one-third of the value, after privatization, can imagine China economy will demonstrate how potential. China's reform and the reference point is to get to market, then get democratization. This is the Deng Xiaoping's wise. Democratization in the country prior to commercialization, the effects are not very good, including India. The rise of the middle class is very important, otherwise the democratization is likely to become a populist, and even led to mob politics. If you have the vast majority of people have lost a few rich, it is in trouble. Poor people may not behave, they lose only chains, get the whole world; extremely rich people may or may not behave, they can use the power of money oppress others. This society is very bad. Chinese political reform faces a major challenge is, how to democratization and elite governance. Democratic reform must not become a populist, homeboy movement. United States may be democratic and elite control the best marriage in the State. Westerners stressed that China's responsibility, reasonable, responsible would have international status.