Financial predators astound his friends and Associates: the future of the world and America _ his relation to dense easy

Zen enlightened master had said, the United States of the European financial crisis not over yet, next to a landslide. Now we see that the international financial predators who also have this view. Soros is of the view that the old system has collapsed, the international multilateral system needs to be rebuilt. October 2009, George Soros (GeorgeSoros) · in the Central European University, Budapest (CentralEuropeanUniversit y) has published a series of lectures, expounded his crisis in financial markets, the political system and open society: thoughts and ideas. This article is the first 5 speech, entitled "the future", focused on how to rebuild the international multilateral institutions, the United States and China in the future development of the important role. -I regret to tell you that recovery may stop, and even the resulting "recession" again, and I'm not sure that this will happen in 2010 or 2011. Then the moment, the uncertainties of the broad scope of the exception. We just survived the second world war the most severe financial crisis. The crisis in the quantity, quality, and the crisis of the past is not the same. For comparison, the 1991 Japan occurred in the real estate bubble burst, yet recovery; there is the 1930s great depression in the United States. And Japan is different is that the crisis is limited to one country, whereas the crisis in the world. And the great depression, this does not allow the financial system collapse, but rather to it on artificial life support machine. In fact, we face today's credit and lever problems (creditandleverageproblem ) the depth and breadth than the 1930 's to much more serious. When the United States in 1929 by the credit balance (creditoutstanding) is gross domestic product (GDP) of 160%, to 1932 grow to 250%; whereas at the beginning of 2008 is 365%, not including the 1930s when the financial markets not yet exist and now widespread use of derivatives (derivatives). Nevertheless, artificial life support machine actually worked. Lehman Brothers Inc. closed less than a year, the financial markets have stabilized, the stock has rebounded, economy shows signs of recovery. People want to go back to business as usual, the 2008 crash only as a nightmare. But I'm sorry to tell you that recovery may stop, and even the resulting "recession" again (doubledip), and I'm not sure that this will happen in 2010 or 2011. Have this view of not only me, but my point of view and is currently the dominant emotion. As far as I can judge, the dominant emotion and actual situation. It is typical of far from equilibrium condition at this point human perception tend to lag behind reality. On the one hand, most people still don't realize this crisis is different from the past, we are at the end of an era. On the other hand, other people, including myself, failed to anticipate the degree of recovery in the rebound. -In the market's invisible hand behind a tangible political hands, in the development of the market rules and conditions. I put the financial market as a part of history. Chaos and confusion not only in the financial sector, it extends to the entire international stage. After the collapse of the former Soviet Union United States became the sole superpower. No other country or countries of the Association can challenge their supreme power. However, such a "unipolar" (uni-polar) world order could not be sustained. When President Bush to show the power of the United States, and to false when the invasion of Iraq as a pretext, the effect of backfire with his intentions. The power and influence in the United States will nose dive, as a result of confusion of the international financial system in addition to instability in international relations. After that will form a new world order, you will not be like the past so much affected by the control and around the United States. In order to understand what is happening in these things, we need a different from the past are familiar with the concept of frameworks. Effective market assumptions on the financial markets isolated, completely without regard to political factors. This is a misinterpretation. As I have repeatedly mentioned, in the market's invisible hand behind a tangible political hands, in the development of the market rules and conditions. My idea structure related to political economy, which is not abstract, "timeless" of market economics. I put the financial market as a part of history. After World War II reconstruction of the international financial system does not establish a level playing field in the system of the countries located on the edge of the System Center of countries at a disadvantage. The system built from the beginning has been affected by the United States. In Breton (BrettonWoods) meeting, although United Kingdom Lord Keynes (LordKeynes) introduced the system, but by the United States delegation to Harry · white (HarryWhite) specific actions. Since then, we almost full supervisory system had become almost completely without supervision system; these changes led by the United States, and the so-called "Washington consensus" (WashingtonConsensus) continues to boot the system. In fact the international financial system is a two level hierarchy (two-tier) schemas: can I use my own currency borrowing countries are at the Centre of the system, while lending to one of the hard currency countries is determined by the system's perimeter. If a country encountered any difficulties, you can obtain assistance, but the conditions are demanding that the core and the periphery countries are the same. But if the core itself is threatened, the system saves the dimension is becoming the number one priority. This situation in the 1982 international banking crisis in the first place. If the debtor is allowed for the payment of arrears, the banking system will crash. Therefore international financial authority jointly, I then known as the "cooperative loan system" (collectivesystemoflend-ing)。 Borrowing countries have to scroll through the renewal of loans, (rolloverloans) can get enough debtors borrowing support obligations. The end result is that the debtor was serious recession, Latin America's development is delayed for ten years, and to profit of the banking system and out of trouble. In 1997 the recurrence of similar situations, but by then, the Bank has learned to review loan, not to have been forced to take cooperative loan and debt majority loss had to be borne. This will establish a pattern: debtor countries subject to the severest market discipline, but if the system itself is threatened, the rules are usually suspended. -The global financial system is built on a wrong assumptions, that is, the market can safely rely on their own mechanisms to adjust, this is exactly what it's undoing. Global market need for global control, and the current regulations and are based on national sovereignty. 2007/2008 financial crisis, and this is different because it originated in the core countries, while the periphery countries is only after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Inc. is involved in. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a new task: protect core countries affected by the storm of neighboring countries. The organization does not have sufficient funds, but soon the joint action of its Member States raised US $ 1 trillion. In General, the International Monetary Fund in the new task to do fairly well. International financial authority dealing with the crisis of the practice, generally as in the past: aid will collapse of financial institutions, the implementation of monetary and fiscal stimulus measures. But this crisis to much the same way at first did not work. On the salvage failed, Lehman Brothers Inc. was a turning point in the significance of the event: financial markets actually stopped and had to add artificial life support machine. This means that the Government is forced to guarantee not to let other likely to endanger the system of institutional collapse again. It was at this time the crisis extends to the neighbouring countries, as they cannot offer the same guarantees of reputable. The Eastern European countries suffer the heaviest. In the central position of the country, with their Central Bank funds balance to the system of injection of capital for commercial bank debt guarantee, and to stimulate the economy, the government deficit reached an unprecedented scale. These measures have proved to be effective, the global economy appears to have stabilized. More and more people believe that the global financial system from crash again, we are gradually return to business as usual. This is a serious misunderstanding of the present situation, already broken can't fight back together. Let me explain why. Since the 1980s, the formation of the globalization of financial markets, is a United States and United Kingdom-launch of market fundamentalism. Allow financial capital in the world, it is difficult to move freely on their taxation or regulation, the financial capital is in an advantageous position. Governments had to pay greater attention to the requirements of international capital, rather than the desire of its people, as the financial capital can move more freely. Thus, globalization as market fundamentalism project, was so successful that in the different countries is difficult to resist. But the resulting global financial system fundamentally unstable since it is based on an erroneous assumptions, that financial markets can safely rely on their own mechanisms to regulate. This is exactly what it's undoing, is why not pieced together again. Global market need for global control, and the current regulations are based on the principle of national sovereignty. There are also some international agreements, one of the most famous is the establishment of minimum capital requirements of the Basel Accord (BaselAccord), market supervision departments also have good cooperation. But regulatory authority sources is always attributed to the sovereign State. This means that the restart a stopped mechanism does not help, you need not create a regulatory mechanism existed. The current situation is that each country's financial system is composed of individual countries themselves to maintenance and support. Government are primarily concerned with the domestic economy. This will encourage the "financial protectionism" tendencies, it is possible to disrupt or even the destruction of the global financial markets. I want to clarify that the scope of the regulation must be international. Not the case, the financial markets to sustain globalization, be arbitrary nature of the supervision of the wreck. Globalization has been so successful because it forced the cancellation of all countries, but in turn supervised do is difficult for all countries accept uniform regulation would be very difficult. Different countries have different interests, which led them to adopt a different solution. This can be seen in Europe. If the European countries are not able to agree on how to let other parts of the world do? the present circumstances of the euro is an incomplete currency: it has a common Central Bank, but does not have a common Ministry of finance, and on bank guarantees and to inject capital finance functions. The crisis provides a patch for this flaw, but Germany acts as resistance. -The financial crisis on the different countries will produce different effects, the United States would lose most United States consumers no longer have the ability to make the world's economic engine, but China has the potential to replace the location, the Chinese may be the greatest winners. The financial crisis on the different countries will produce different effects. In the short term in all countries are affected by the negative effects, but in the long term, there are winners are losers. Bluntly, the United States would lose most, China may be headed for the biggest winners. The relative position of other countries will also have considerable changes, but from a global perspective, the United States and China change is most important. Since the United States since World War has been the center of the international financial system. The dollar is a key international currency, the United States therefore profit, but has recently started to abuse their privileges. United States from the 1980s to establish the current account deficit increased, this situation could continue indefinitely because Asian Tiger, began to Japan as the first, then China, willing to support this kind of deficit in order to strengthen their dollar reserves. But the United States too many families in debt so that the process to terminate. United States consumers no longer have the ability to do the world's economic engine. And in a way likely to replace this location. China has been the main beneficiaries of globalization, and largely isolated from the outside of the financial crisis. On the West, particularlyUnited States, the crisis was triggered by the internal factors, led to the collapse of the financial system. On China, the financial crisis from an external shock, impact on exports, but their financial, political and economic systems are not affected by trauma. China has found a very effective way to release its people and inspiring and creative obtaining wealth, dynamic and entrepreneurial spirit, people are allowed to pursue their own interests. At the same time, countries can support underestimate the currency and the cumulative balance of trade, extract their labour surplus value in considerable part. China's leaders know that if you want to avoid social unrest, we must make every effort to maintain the 8% of the speed of economic development and growing labour force in the creation of new employment opportunities. The trade balance is very strong in China. China can pass on infrastructure investment and stimulate the domestic economy, but also through the trading partner investment and provision of credit to increase exports. Of course, China's economic size is much smaller than the United States, small engine, front line of the world economy will be slower speed. But within a certain scope, the position of the United States is undergoing a structural change. China has become the Asia, Africa, Latin America and Central Asia countries of major trading partners. This position is not necessarily permanent alternation or irreversible, but at the moment, this is the global political economy in the most predictable and most important trends. The success of China's economic policy could not be treated as a matter of course. In China's system, new investment returns are generally very slow because investment decisions mainly by political factors rather than a commercial factors. Further, China may be dragged by the global recession. But if China, global economy loses engine. -The need to create a more sound principles on the basis of the new multilateral framework that is consistent with the United States and China's best interests, naturally also are the world's best interests. Currently, led, we refer to it as "international capitalism" of the multilateral system, not yet completely collapse, but have hit; it has intrinsic ills, but be exposed to a viable alternative to challenge China's rise has a current international financial system is fundamentally different forms of economic organization. We can refer to as "state capitalism", to distinguish them from the Washington consensus under the banner of "international capitalism." We are at the end of an era, but it is also not fully recognize this. Two forms of economic organization — — national capitalism and competitive international capitalism. Both the lack of attractiveness. The current forms of international capitalism has proved itself an inherent instability, because of the lack of adequate supervision. And it's very unfair that the relative poor poor countries the system in favour of the rich rich countries. At the same time, build in state capitalism on the basis of the international system, will inevitably lead to a conflict between States. This conflict has started finding, ironically, when the colonial powers have recognized its past mistakes and try to rectify, China in countries with abundant natural resources, and when dealing with repeating these colonial State of error. In order to be close to these natural resources, China and these countries deal with the ruler, while neglecting the people there. This helps to repressive and corrupt regime to maintain power. This result is not good, but China is not only the responsibility of the State. Chinese company wants to buy United States oil company Unocal (Unocal) is rejected. More recently, force extension mining group (RioTinto) estoppel was part of the shares sold to a Chinese company transactions. This prompted the Chinese and international financial institutions, to avoid for some countries, such as Myanmar, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Congo and Angola, etc. To sum up, the world faces in two distinct forms of organization. Both organizations can call international capitalism and state capitalism. The former, the United States as representative, already beat; the latter to China as representative, is rising. While the bilateral relations between the system and easily lead to conflicts between States. So you will need to create a more sound principles on the basis of the new multilateral framework that is consistent with the United States and China's best interests, naturally also are the world's best interests. 20 g as the main forum for international cooperation, and in the Pittsburgh Conference adopted peer review program (peerreviewprocess) is in the right direction. A new Bretton Woods Conference can complete many tasks in one fell swoop. It is available on the IMF to rebuild, to better reflect the sort between countries, and modify existing operation method. Conference can also decide how to deal with the scale is too large to allow its failed financial institutions, as well as consider control capital walks new rules. Financial capital in the international scope of the freedom to walk completely, has proven to be unstable factors of a source control needs to be constrained. Will the dollar as the major international currency has resulted in a dangerous imbalance. The dollar has lost its had the trust and confidence, but no other currencies may be replaced. Now the general trend is various currencies are the gold and other commodities and transfer of tangible assets. This is harmful because it will be these assets locked and cannot be put into effective use, and fanned fears of inflation. United States should not be exclusive to the wider use of special drawing rights (SDR). This allows the international community to urge China to abandon its currency pegged, but also reduce international imbalances in the best way. Special drawing rights are included in the scope of the currency must be expanded, some of the new currency (including RMB), maybe not completely freely convertible. In this way, the US dollar is still likely to republish your preferred setting up as a reserve currency, its premise is that the dollar is carefully regulated. Special drawing rights are one of the big advantages is that it allows the creation of an international currency. Special like this moment this is particularly useful in currency will be cited to where they are most needed. This mechanism allows no additional reserve of rich countries, the share of their existing be transferred to countries that need to reserve it in a small area has begun. -Currently lacking is a widespread recognition that system has collapsed, needs to be rebuilt. The future of the world to see the United States and Chinese leaders do. If we want to address global warming and nuclear non-proliferation issues also have toExhibition, leading to the current world order resize, there may be a need to go beyond the scope of the financial system. You may need the United Nations, in particular the participation of Member States of the Council. This program requires the United States, China and other developing countries should be equal participation. Emerging countries should be involved in the creation of a new order to ensure that they are the active support of the new order. United States why should move reform themselves used to be the main beneficiaries of the system? this system in its present form is not possible to maintain that the United States who do not take the lead in transforming them, losses may be greater. United States during the Bush Administration has lost a lot of power and influence. If you do not have a visionary leadership, the relative status of the United States is likely to continue to decline. Now that China will be the winner's identity from the current level of confusion in the China why should accept a new multilateral system? answer is equally simple. In order to continue to rise, China must to let the rest of the world to accept it. This means that China must to a more open society direction, the expansion of personal freedom and the rule of law. Only peaceful means, in order to continue rising in China, the world is also happy to accept China's rise. In order to be able to have a peaceful world, the United States in the new world order to find its proper place is even more important. One has lost its political and economic domination of the decline of the superpower, still has a military absolute advantage, is a dangerous mix. Financial crisis did not like the United States in the face of grim reality showered pain. Obama has used the value of the "confidence", claimed that the recession has been under control. In the event of a decline in the United States again will be more susceptible to the effects of various fears. If Obama fails, the next Government will vigorously trying to create disturbances, transfer it on domestic issues, this world would be very dangerous. Obama's ideas are correct, but he needs to look much further. Chinese leaders need more than Obama visionaries. They are at the helm, but if you want to provide a more open society, they must give up some existing privileges. Now the Chinese also willing to personal freedom subject to political stability and economic prosperity, but may not always be this way. Corruption is a big problem, China needs to rule of law, so that citizens can criticize the Government, to prevent the abuse of power. In order to allow ourselves to be accepted by the world, China is also a need to become a more open society. The rest of the world will never let it free subject to China's prosperity. As China becomes world's leadership, it must learn to be more concerned about the rest of the world views and views. Hope that China's leaders to take on the burden of history. It is no exaggeration to say that the future of the world do you want to see them.